Signs of a slowing economy are increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut short-term interest rates, but it isn't clear whether the central bank will do so. A survey by the Fed's 12 district banks shows economic growth has been sluggish in recent weeks, while upward pressures on prices have moderated. `` The economy is clearly slowing, '' says Robert Black, president of the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank. `` If you look at the third quarter as posting roughly 2.5 % growth, I do see some slowing in the fourth quarter, '' agrees Kansas City Fed President Roger Guffey. Nevertheless, both Mr. Guffey and Mr. Black say the slowdown so far is no cause for concern. `` We're coming closer to achieving the stated objective of slowing the economy to a point where hopefully some downward trend in prices will occur, '' said Mr. Guffey. Bush administration officials are looking to the Fed to bring down rates, and financial markets seem to be expecting easier credit as well. `` I think the market had been expecting the Fed to ease sooner and a little more than it has to date, '' said Robert Johnson, vice president of global markets for Bankers Trust Co. The Fed cut the key federal funds interest rate by about 0.25 percentage point to 8.75 % after the Oct. 13 stock market plunge, but has shown no sign of movement since. The report from the Fed found that manufacturing, in particular, has been weak in recent weeks. The Philadelphia Fed, for instance, reported that manufacturing activity `` continues to decline '' for the fourth month in a row. And in the Chicago district, the report said, `` a manufacturer of capital goods noted slower orders for some types, including defense equipment, petroleum equipment, food packaging machinery and material handling equipment. '' Retail sales also were reported slow in most districts, particularly `` for discretionary, big-ticket items such as furniture, home appliances and consumer electronics. '' And construction also was described as slow in most areas. Despite the economic slowdown, there are few clear signs that growth is coming to a halt. As a result, Fed officials may be divided over whether to ease credit. Several Fed governors in Washington have been pushing for easier credit; but many of the regional Fed presidents have been resisting such a move. Mr. Black said he is `` pleased '' with the economy's recent performance, and doesn't see `` a lot of excesses out there that would tilt us into recession. '' `` There is always a chance of recession, '' added Mr. Guffey, `` but if you ask me to put a percentage on it, I would think it's well below a 50 % chance. TEXT Signs of a slowing economy are increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut short-term interest rates , but it is n't clear whether the central bank will do so . A survey by the Fed 's 12 district banks shows economic growth has been sluggish in recent weeks , while upward pressures on prices have moderated . `` The economy is clearly slowing , '' says Robert Black , president of the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank . `` If you look at the third quarter as posting roughly 2.5 % growth , I do see some slowing in the fourth quarter , '' agrees Kansas City Fed President Roger Guffey . Nevertheless , both Mr. Guffey and Mr. Black say the slowdown so far is no cause for concern . `` We 're coming closer to achieving the stated objective of slowing the economy to a point where hopefully some downward trend in prices will occur , '' said Mr. Guffey . Bush administration officials are looking to the Fed to bring down rates , and financial markets seem to be expecting easier credit as well . `` I think the market had been expecting the Fed to ease sooner and a little more than it has to date , '' said Robert Johnson , vice president of global markets for Bankers Trust Co . The Fed cut the key federal funds interest rate by about 0.25 percentage point to 8.75 % after the Oct. 13 stock market plunge , but has shown no sign of movement since . The report from the Fed found that manufacturing , in particular , has been weak in recent weeks . The Philadelphia Fed , for instance , reported that manufacturing activity `` continues to decline '' for the fourth month in a row . And in the Chicago district , the report said , `` a manufacturer of capital goods noted slower orders for some types , including defense equipment , petroleum equipment , food packaging machinery and material handling equipment . '' Retail sales also were reported slow in most districts , particularly `` for discretionary , big-ticket items such as furniture , home appliances and consumer electronics . '' And construction also was described as slow in most areas . Despite the economic slowdown , there are few clear signs that growth is coming to a halt . As a result , Fed officials may be divided over whether to ease credit . Several Fed governors in Washington have been pushing for easier credit ; but many of the regional Fed presidents have been resisting such a move . Mr. Black said he is `` pleased '' with the economy 's recent performance , and does n't see `` a lot of excesses out there that would tilt us into recession . '' `` There is always a chance of recession , '' added Mr. Guffey , `` but if you ask me to put a percentage on it , I would think it 's well below a 50 % chance . 2~4~6~8~10 6~8~10 16 20~22~24 30~32~34 50~52~54 65~67~69~71~73~75~77~79~81 71~73~75~77~79~81 73 85~87 97~99 107~109~111 111 122~124 138~140~142~144~146~148~150~152~154~156 148~150~152~154~156 150 165 171~173~175 181~183~185~187 191 199~201~203~205~207 203~205~207 215~217 215~217~219 215~217~219~221~223~225 236~238 236~238~240~242~244 242~244 248~250 264 271 283~285~287~289~291~293~295 293~295 299~301 303 307~309~311~313~315 315 327~329 334 334~336 334~336~338 346~348 356 362~364 374~376 387 391~393 401~403 421 435~437~439~441~443~445~447~449~451~453~455~457 447~449 453~455~457 462~464 468~470~472~474~476~478 482~484~486~488 492~494 498~500~502~504~506~508 504~506 518~520~522~524 531~533~535~537~539 537~539 563~565 570~572~574 588~590 604~606~608~610~612~614 623~625~627 625 631~633 641~643~645~647~649 647~649 653~655 659~661 667~669 667~669~671~673~675~677~679~681~683~685~687~689~691 673~675 679~681~683 687~689~691 698~700 712~714 724~726~728~730 736 736~738~740~742~744~746~748 740~742 746~748 757 771~773 780~782~784 792~794~796 800 808~810 817~819 823 823~825 841 846~848~850 848 854 864~866 872~874~876~878~880~882 876~878~880~882 878~880 892~894 899~901 905 917~919~921~923~925 919 939~941~943~945 947~949 957 961 976~978~980~982 982 990~992 1002 1006 1012~1014 1018 1022 1028 1036~1038~1040~1042 Signs of a slowing economy|1801 a slowing economy|1802 pressure|1803 the Federal Reserve|1804,1806,1809,1843,1849,1850,1854,1862,1893,1897 short-term interest rates|1805,1844 A survey|1807,1861,1869 the Fed's 12 district banks|1808 economic growth|1810,1890 recent weeks|1811,1863 pressures on prices|1812 prices|1813,1838 The economy|1814,1834,1907 Robert Black|1815,1829,1904,1905 the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank|1816 Richmond|1817 generic you|1818,1915 the third quarter|1819 roughly 2.5 % growth|1820 Roger Guffey|1821,1826,1827,1839,1914,1916,1919 slowing in the fourth quarter|1822 the fourth quarter|1823 Kansas City|1824 Kansas City Fed|1825 Mr. Guffey and Mr. Black|1828 the economic slowdown|1830,1888 concern|1831 generic we|1832,1910 the stated objective of slowing the economy|1833 a point|1835,1836 some downward trend in prices|1837 Bush|1840 Bush administration|1841 Bush administration officials|1842 financial markets|1845 easier credit|1846,1899,1903 Robert Johnson|1847,1851 the market|1848 global markets|1852 Bankers Trust Co|1853 the key federal funds interest rate|1855 about 0.25 percentage point|1856 8.75 %|1857 the Oct. 13 stock market plunge|1858 stock market|1859 no sign of movement|1860 The Philadelphia Fed|1864 manufacturing|1865 the fourth month in a row|1866 the Chicago district|1867 Chicago|1868 a manufacturer of capital goods|1870 capital goods|1871 slower orders|1872 some types|1873,1875 defense equipment|1874 petroleum equipment|1876 food packaging machinery|1877 material handling equipment|1878 Retail sales|1879 most districts|1880,1887 discretionary, big-ticket items|1881,1882,1883,1884,1885 construction|1886 few clear signs|1889 a halt|1891 a result|1892 Fed officials|1894 credit|1895 Several Fed governors|1896 Washington|1898 many of the regional Fed presidents|1900 the regional Fed presidents|1901 the regional Fed|1902 the economy's recent performance|1906 a lot of excesses|1908 out there|1909 recession|1911,1913 a chance|1912,1918,1920 a percentage|1917,1921 1801|NUC:DIST:2|MOD:DIST:4~6~8~10 1802|MOD:DIST:6|MOD:DIST:8|NUC:DIST:10 1803|NUC:DIST:16 1804|MOD:DIST:20|NUC:DIST:22~24 1805|MOD:DIST:30|MOD:DIST:32|NUC:DIST:34 1806|MOD:DIST:50|MOD:DIST:52|NUC:DIST:54 1807|MOD:DIST:65|NUC:DIST:67|MOD:DIST:69~71~73~75~77~79~81 1808|MOD:DIST:71|MOD:DIST:73~75|MOD:DIST:77|MOD:DIST:79|NUC:DIST:81 1809|NUC:DIST:73 1810|MOD:DIST:85|NUC:DIST:87 1811|MOD:DIST:97|NUC:DIST:99 1812|NUC:DIST:107|MOD:DIST:109~111 1813|NUC:DIST:111 1814|MOD:DIST:122|NUC:DIST:124 1815|NUC:DIST:138~140|MOD:DESC:144~146~148~150~152~154~156 1816|MOD:DIST:148|NUC:DIST:150~152~154~156 1817|NUC:DIST:150 1818|NUC:DIST:165 1819|MOD:DIST:171|MOD:DIST:173|NUC:DIST:175 1820|MOD:DIST:181~183~185|NUC:DIST:187 1821|NUC:DIST:191 1822|NUC:DIST:199|MOD:DIST:201~203~205~207 1823|MOD:DIST:203|MOD:DIST:205|NUC:DIST:207 1824|NUC:DIST:215~217 1825|MOD:DIST:215~217|NUC:DIST:219 1826|MOD:DESC:215~217~219~221|NUC:DIST:223~225 1827|MOD:DIST:236|NUC:DIST:238 1828|NUC:DIST:236~238~240~242~244 1829|MOD:DIST:242|NUC:DIST:244 1830|MOD:DIST:248|NUC:DIST:250 1831|NUC:DIST:264 1832|NUC:DIST:271 1833|MOD:DIST:283|MOD:DESC:285|NUC:DIST:287|MOD:DIST:289~291~293~295 1834|MOD:DIST:293|NUC:DIST:295 1835|MOD:DIST:299|NUC:DIST:301 1836|NUC:DIST:303 1837|MOD:DIST:307|MOD:DIST:309|NUC:DIST:311|MOD:DIST:313~315 1838|NUC:DIST:315 1839|MOD:DIST:327|NUC:DIST:329 1840|NUC:DIST:334 1841|MOD:DIST:334|NUC:DIST:336 1842|MOD:DIST:334~336|NUC:DIST:338 1843|MOD:DIST:346|NUC:DIST:348 1844|NUC:DIST:356 1845|MOD:DIST:362|NUC:DIST:364 1846|MOD:DIST:374|NUC:DIST:376 1847|NUC:DIST:387 1848|MOD:DIST:391|NUC:DIST:393 1849|MOD:DIST:401|NUC:DIST:403 1850|NUC:DIST:421 1851|NUC:DIST:435~437|MOD:DESC:441~443~445~447~449~451~453~455~457 1852|MOD:DIST:447|NUC:DIST:449 1853|NUC:DIST:453~455~457 1854|MOD:DIST:462|NUC:DIST:464 1855|MOD:DIST:468|MOD:DIST:470|MOD:DIST:472|MOD:DIST:474|MOD:DIST:476|NUC:DIST:478 1856|MOD:DIST:482|MOD:DIST:484|MOD:DESC:486|NUC:DIST:488 1857|NUC:DIST:492~494 1858|MOD:DIST:498|MOD:DIST:500~502|MOD:DIST:504~506|NUC:DESC:508 1859|MOD:DIST:504|NUC:DIST:506 1860|MOD:DIST:518|NUC:DESC:520|MOD:DIST:522~524 1861|MOD:DIST:531|NUC:DIST:533|MOD:DIST:535~537~539 1862|MOD:DIST:537|NUC:DIST:539 1863|MOD:DIST:563|NUC:DIST:565 1864|MOD:DIST:570|MOD:DIST:572|NUC:DIST:574 1865|MOD:DIST:588|NUC:DIST:590 1866|MOD:DIST:604|MOD:DIST:606|NUC:DIST:608|MOD:DIST:610~612~614 1867|MOD:DIST:623|MOD:DIST:625|NUC:DIST:627 1868|NUC:DIST:625 1869|MOD:DIST:631|NUC:DIST:633 1870|MOD:DIST:641|NUC:DIST:643|MOD:DIST:645~647~649 1871|MOD:DIST:647|NUC:DIST:649 1872|MOD:DIST:653|NUC:DIST:655 1873|MOD:DIST:659|NUC:DIST:661 1874|MOD:DIST:667|NUC:DIST:669 1875|NUC:DIST:667~669~671~673~675~677~679~681~683~685~687~689~691 1876|MOD:DIST:673|NUC:DIST:675 1877|MOD:DIST:679~681|NUC:DIST:683 1878|MOD:DIST:687~689|NUC:DIST:691 1879|MOD:DIST:698|NUC:DIST:700 1880|MOD:DIST:712|NUC:DIST:714 1881|MOD:DESC:724|MOD:DIST:728|NUC:DIST:730 1882|NUC:DIST:736 1883|NUC:DIST:736~738~740~742~744~746~748 1884|MOD:DIST:740|NUC:DIST:742 1885|MOD:DESC:746|NUC:DIST:748 1886|NUC:DIST:757 1887|MOD:DIST:771|NUC:DIST:773 1888|MOD:DIST:780|MOD:DESC:782|NUC:DIST:784 1889|MOD:DIST:792|MOD:DESC:794|NUC:DESC:796 1890|NUC:DIST:800 1891|MOD:DIST:808|NUC:DIST:810 1892|MOD:DIST:817|NUC:DIST:819 1893|NUC:DIST:823 1894|MOD:DIST:823|NUC:DIST:825 1895|NUC:DIST:841 1896|MOD:DIST:846|MOD:DIST:848|NUC:DIST:850 1897|NUC:DIST:848 1898|NUC:DIST:854 1899|MOD:DIST:864|NUC:DIST:866 1900|NUC:DIST:872|MOD:DIST:874~876~878~880~882 1901|MOD:DIST:876|MOD:DIST:878~880|NUC:DIST:882 1902|MOD:DIST:878|NUC:DIST:880 1903|MOD:DIST:892|NUC:DIST:894 1904|MOD:DIST:899|NUC:DIST:901 1905|NUC:DIST:905 1906|MOD:DIST:917|MOD:DIST:919~921|MOD:DIST:923|NUC:DIST:925 1907|NUC:DIST:919 1908|MOD:DIST:939~941~943|NUC:DIST:945 1909|MOD:DESC:947|NUC:DIST:949 1910|NUC:DIST:957 1911|NUC:DIST:961 1912|MOD:DIST:976|NUC:DIST:978|MOD:DIST:980~982 1913|NUC:DIST:982 1914|MOD:DIST:990|NUC:DIST:992 1915|NUC:DIST:1002 1916|NUC:DIST:1006 1917|MOD:DIST:1012|NUC:DIST:1014 1918|NUC:DIST:1018 1919|NUC:DIST:1022 1920|NUC:DIST:1028 1921|MOD:DIST:1036|MOD:DIST:1038~1040|NUC:DIST:1042