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Sign in[Submit an Article](https://write.insightmediagroup.io) [Latest](https://towardsdatascience.com/latest/)[Editor's Picks](https://towardsdatascience.com/tag/editors-pick/)[Newsletter](https://towardsdatascience.com/tag/the-variable/)[ShipAI](https://towardsdatascience.com/shipai/) * * * [Write For TDS](https://towardsdatascience.com/submissions/) [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/company/towards-data-science/)[X](https://x.com/TDataScience)Toggle Search [Artificial Intelligence](https://towardsdatascience.com/category/artificial-intelligence/) # Explainable AI and the Focus on Human Curiosity and concentrating on the top few factors and counterfactuals [Tirthajyoti Sarkar](https://towardsdatascience.com/author/tirthajyoti/) January 24, 20228 min read ![](../images/000.png) ## Explainable AI is hard Explainable AI - or "xAI" as it is called sometimes - is hard - both figuratively and computationally. _Figuratively_ because the scope, purpose, and effectiveness of explainability are often hard to anticipate precisely and formalize in a problem definition or a user case study. These attributes take on a fluid form and spread out rather quickly and unpredictably. The _computational_ challenge of xAI comes from the mechanics of calculating metrics like [**Shapley values**](https://christophm.github.io/interpretable-ml-book/shapley.html) (for a large number of possible combinations of input features even if not for the entire power set). This is primarily a side effect of the fact that the most successful - and, therefore, important to offer explainability - machine learning models tend to have a large parameter space and deal with a bagful of features (or high-dimensional data type like images or natural language). There are a good number of high-quality articles written about these. Exciting startups are working hard to address many of these problems. In this article, we just want to focus on one aspect - _how anticipating the user curiosity_ may help guide the xAI system design effort. Learn this step by step with the interactive [AI Engineer](https://roadmap.sh/ai-engineer), [AI and Data Scientist](https://roadmap.sh/ai-data-scientist), [Computer Science](https://roadmap.sh/computer-science) and [Machine Learning](https://roadmap.sh/machine-learning) roadmaps. ## Two definitions - one to avoid There is a landmark paper in this domain by Tim Miller: "[_**Explanation in Artificial Intelligence: Insights from the Social Sciences**_](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.07269)" (2017). It has, sort of, two (non-mathematical) definitions for "Machine Learning Interpretability". One definition is - _**Interpretability is the degree to which a human can understand the cause of a decision**_**.** Another goes by - _**Interpretability is the degree to which a human can consistently predict the model's result**_**.** ### Depending on human prediction is tricky I would argue that the second definition should be avoided, even if it is straightforward and tempting to follow. Why tempting to follow? Because between the two, this one has **clearer mechanics for measurement**. And, measurement is important for designing engineering systems. One can test the interpretability of an ML system by employing human evaluators and measure how consistently they can predict the model's results. This also parallels the famous "**Human-level performance** " benchmark that all deep learning models and their designers talk about. Please accept cookies to access this content But, let's not overlook the prickly fact that depending on the human mind for consistently predicting structured results - essentially mimicking a sophisticated computer program - is not always a wise choice. That's why this definition of ML interpretability should be avoided. Let me show you an example - right here in this article. ### A demonstration I wrote an article about building a single utility function to train a complete convolutional neural net model from just one input of the training images storage location. > [**A single function to streamline image classification with Keras**](https://towardsdatascience.com/a-single-function-to-streamline-image-classification-with-keras-bd04f5cfe6df) Here is the [notebook](https://github.com/tirthajyoti/Deep-learning-with-Python/blob/master/Notebooks/Keras_flow_from_directory.ipynb). One of the examples was about classification between "cup" or "crab" from the famous [**Caltech-101 dataset**](https://www.tensorflow.org/datasets/catalog/caltech101). Let me ask you - the reader - to classify the test images. What is it? A cup or a crab? How much time did it take you to classify? Less than 100 milliseconds, maybe? What about this one? Again, instant recognition, isn't it? Now, what about this one? You had a chuckle, didn't you? "_A tricky one for the machine,_ " you thought silently. So, as a human evaluator, you did pretty well. But, comparing your performance to an ML algorithm - _purely from an interpretability point of view_ - will be very hard in this exercise. Because a 5-layer convolutional neural net is sort of a black box whose inner working will be hard to explain to anyone. You will never be satisfied with the comparison and **reconcile with the fact that your thinking is in the same line as that of the ML model**. You just won't know what that 'line of thinking for the ML model is! Now, consider this example. Let's say you have built a **logistic regression model** of a chemical process for your manufacturing plant to predict the quality - _good_ or _bad_ - based on input process parameters (measured by sophisticated sensors). Here is a snapshot of the test data (think of it as parallel to the test images you saw above). I have hidden the "Target" column partially because that's what you will not see but will be evaluated on. What's your chance of predicting the right targets on this one looking at those maze of numbers? What's the chance that you can rattle off correct predictions under 100 milliseconds? The grand scheme of using human evaluators as the metric of ML interpretability will fail spectacularly for this model. **The irony, however, is that the choice of a simple binary logistic classification is perfect** from an interpretability point of view. It is, indeed, an interpretable model. Just not the way we pitted a human evaluator against it. ### Human brains have not evolved to deal with tabular data Tabular data, in a nicely written form, is a recent development in human history. Sumerian or Assyrian cuneiforms were some of the earliest examples of written scripts and they were developed out of the need for record-keeping - land sales, agriculture output, tax revenue. **A bronze age version of Microsoft Excel!** But, it's only the bronze age. Just around the agricultural revolution, whose impact on food production, population density, and urbanization, led to this kind of tabular dataset. Human cognitive revolution has been taking place for a long time - much before that. Here is an approximate timeline. And, this chart above does not even cover the timeline of the **evolution of the most amazing visual cortex and the human eye**. That biology was shaped by the need to survive in the African savannah - classifying a predator from prey, a safe berry to eat from a poisonous one. [**Hans Moravec**](https://frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/), an Austria-born American roboticist and computer scientist, and presently, an adjunct faculty member of the [Robotics Institute of Carnegie Mellon University](https://www.ri.cmu.edu/), put it in a slightly different way - "_it is comparatively easy to make computers exhibit adult level performance on intelligence tests or playing checkers, and difficult or impossible to give them the skills of a one-year-old when it comes to perception and mobility_ ". > [**Why math is easy for AI but gardening is not: Moravec's paradox**](https://towardsdatascience.com/why-math-is-easy-for-ai-but-gardening-is-not-moravecs-paradox-99994b201d10) All this is to say - human evaluators will do fine with an object classification work but fail miserably with a binary classification using a tabular dataset. Although the common ML models used for these tasks will be exactly opposite from the interpretability point of view - a hard-to-interpret neural net and a relatively easier logistic regression. ## Go with the curiosity For interpretable AI/ML systems, therefore, it makes sense, not to pit humans against the machine to see if the system predictions align with the human-generated ones. Instead, those systems need to be designed - from the ground up - by looking at the variety and nature of the natural curiosity of human users. ### The Why's and the "What-if's Human thinking needs to be respected. This include - "_**why**_ " and "_**what if**_ ". * _I am not testing myself against the prediction_ * _I am just curious about the top-3 factors which led to this prediction_ * _I also wonder if (how) the prediction would be different if one or more of these factors changed_ ### Top-3 or Top-4 is sufficient and advisable The top-3 (or 4) factor is important to note. A well-designed interpretable ML system should not try to overwhelm the user with all the strong patterns in the data that led to the model prediction. This is, again, intimately related to our biology. **We are good only with a small set of numbers**. The short-term working memory of the human brain is around[ 7–8 items/numbers](https://human-memory.net/short-term-working-memory/). Therefore, a good system will focus on showing only a few visual concepts or charts for explaining an ML model. **UX/UI design assumes a critical role**. This goes for general data analytics problems too. Here is an example from [my article](https://towardsdatascience.com/manufacturing-data-analytics-with-python-a-hands-on-example-6de8817a24dc). For a correlation problem involving multiple similar machines, build a simple bar chart clearly highlighting the outlier machines instead of showing the actual correlation plots. ### Counterfactuals The _what-if_ questions are often non-trivial and involve uncovering scenarios that _had not happened_ but _could have had_. If we have a given model, you may think this is easy to do - just throw an exhaustive combination of input to the model, note down all the responses, and present them nicely. But who decides that combination? How to assign priority to the list of stimuli that the model will be tested with for the first time? Here again, user (human) curiosity will be the key to deciding the priority and filtering the list. Additionally, we have to be careful about not testing the model with scenarios that are not too wildly different than the distribution of the training cases it has seen. ### Curiosity changes with the domain It is critical to remember that curiosity changes with the **domain** and **level of the user** within that domain. For a manufacturing organization, various stakeholders will be curious about various aspects of the ML model predictions, Therefore, a good interpretable ML system must strive for covering as much base as possible with well-proven common design patterns e.g. visual analytics that has been proven to be effective (for their explanation power) for a large cross-section of users. ### The explainability may come from a different layer Human curiosity knows no bounds and it is prone to cross boundaries in a fluid manner. Most ML-powered systems are not just a single ML box. More often than not, they have **other layers wrapping around the ML model** and external users only see the recommendation or suggestions from this outer layer. The human curiosity will be drawn to ask questions more pertaining to the structure of this outer layer. Interpretable ML systems should be ready to tackle this as they have to correctly identify the sub-system that the user's curiosity has tapped into. ## Summary Explainable AI is a great field that will drive the adoption of AI/ML systems as true aids to human endeavors. To succeed, apart from the design and computational challenges, anticipating the variety and subtlety of human curiosity will be key. Domain knowledge and an experimental attitude (to design the most appealing UI for example) will also be key ingredients for success. ## Citation for Caltech-101 dataset L. Fei-Fei, R. Fergus and P. Perona. _"Learning generative visual models from few training examples: an incremental Bayesian approach tested on 101 object categories"_ IEEE. CVPR 2004, Workshop on Generative-Model Based Vision. 2004. * * * _Loved the article? Become a_[ _**Medium member**_](https://medium.com/@tirthajyoti/membership) _to continue_ _**learning without limits**_ _. I'll receive a portion of your membership fee if you use the following link,__**with no extra cost to you**_ _._ > [**Join Medium with my referral link - Tirthajyoti Sarkar**](https://medium.com/@tirthajyoti/membership) ## Register Now to Continue Reading ### Unlock Towards Data Science with a Free Account All articles on Towards Data Science are available to registered users. Create a free account today to access this article and thousands more. Register for freeSign in to your account * * * ![](../images/body-662aba1723e2e3d49fcc.jpeg) Written By ## [Tirthajyoti Sarkar](https://towardsdatascience.com/author/tirthajyoti/) [See all from Tirthajyoti Sarkar](https://towardsdatascience.com/author/tirthajyoti/) [Artificial Intelligence](https://towardsdatascience.com/tag/artificial-intelligence/)[Data Science](https://towardsdatascience.com/tag/data-science/)[Explainable Ai](https://towardsdatascience.com/tag/explainable-ai/)[Machine Learning](https://towardsdatascience.com/tag/machine-learning/)[Technology](https://towardsdatascience.com/tag/technology/) Share This Article * [](https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftowardsdatascience.com%2Fexplainable-ai-and-the-focus-on-human-curiosity-aa816aaf3caa%2F&title=Explainable%20AI%20and%20the%20Focus%20on%20Human%20Curiosity) * [](https://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftowardsdatascience.com%2Fexplainable-ai-and-the-focus-on-human-curiosity-aa816aaf3caa%2F&title=Explainable%20AI%20and%20the%20Focus%20on%20Human%20Curiosity) * [](https://x.com/share?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftowardsdatascience.com%2Fexplainable-ai-and-the-focus-on-human-curiosity-aa816aaf3caa%2F&text=Explainable%20AI%20and%20the%20Focus%20on%20Human%20Curiosity) Towards Data Science is a community publication. 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