[![AI as Normal Technology](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YzQY!,w_40,h_40,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6780dda8-5879-4789-bf02-b3ea43a9f85e_1000x1000.png)](https://www.normaltech.ai/)
# [![AI as Normal Technology](../images/013.jpeg)](https://www.normaltech.ai/)
SubscribeSign in
[Home](https://www.normaltech.ai/)
[Notes](https://www.normaltech.ai/notes)
[Get the book](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/starting-reading-the-ai-snake-oil)
[Book exercises](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/ai-snake-oil-exercises-and-discussion)
[About us](https://www.normaltech.ai/about)
[At a glance](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/at-a-glance)
## Page not found
LatestTopDiscussions
[A big-tent or small-tent AI safety movement?](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/a-big-tent-or-small-tent-ai-safety)
[The unstated disagreement that underpins safety debates](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/a-big-tent-or-small-tent-ai-safety)
4 hrs ago • [Arvind Narayanan](https://substack.com/@aisnakeoil) and [Sayash Kapoor](https://substack.com/@sayash)
101
5
12
![](../images/014.jpeg)
### September 2026
[AI existential risk probabilities are (still) too unreliable to inform policy](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/p-doom)
[How speculation gets laundered through pseudo-quantification](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/p-doom)
Sep 28 • [Arvind Narayanan](https://substack.com/@aisnakeoil) and [Sayash Kapoor](https://substack.com/@sayash)
152
21
25
![](../images/032.jpeg)
[The AI-as-Normal-Technology view of loss-of-control incidents](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/the-ai-as-normal-technology-view)
[A middle ground between the cybersecurity and AI safety communities](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/the-ai-as-normal-technology-view)
Sep 14 • [Sayash Kapoor](https://substack.com/@sayash) and [Arvind Narayanan](https://substack.com/@aisnakeoil)
274
54
49
![](../images/body-20b1b779921e86eee151.jpeg)
### August 2026
[AI agents can't yet do open-ended AI research](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/ai-agents-cant-yet-do-open-ended)
[Early evidence from two case studies](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/ai-agents-cant-yet-do-open-ended)
Aug 5 • [Sayash Kapoor](https://substack.com/@sayash) and [Arvind Narayanan](https://substack.com/@aisnakeoil)
194
27
25
![](../images/body-8c159ebce99973a987e4.jpeg)
### July 2026
[What will be left for us to work on?](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/what-will-be-left-for-us-to-work)
[My keynote at ICML 2026](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/what-will-be-left-for-us-to-work)
Jul 13 • [Arvind Narayanan](https://substack.com/@aisnakeoil)
349
30
61
![](../images/body-8d5f0c9ab934fe15ed65.png)
[Up the Stack: How AI’s Escape From the Commodity Trap Risks Enterprise Lock-in](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/up-the-stack-how-ais-escape-from)
[Critics and boosters are both looking in the wrong place](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/up-the-stack-how-ais-escape-from)
Jul 9 • [Arvind Narayanan](https://substack.com/@aisnakeoil)
173
24
31
![](../images/body-8672dbce29f398d63f88.png)
### June 2026
[Why AI hasn’t replaced software engineers, and won’t](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/why-ai-hasnt-replaced-software-engineers)
[Coding agents as normal technology](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/why-ai-hasnt-replaced-software-engineers)
Jun 11 • [Arvind Narayanan](https://substack.com/@aisnakeoil) and [Sayash Kapoor](https://substack.com/@sayash)
600
89
110
![](../images/body-4d4af90675819fbd8cfa.png)
### May 2026
[Did Google’s AI agents really build an operating system for $916?](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/did-googles-ai-agents-really-build)
[The importance of independent evaluation](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/did-googles-ai-agents-really-build)
May 22 • [Sayash Kapoor](https://substack.com/@sayash) and [Arvind Narayanan](https://substack.com/@aisnakeoil)
144
25
11
![](../images/body-c55a02e97e21be5c3fee.webp)
[Do AI Risks Require Extraordinary Government Intervention?](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/do-ai-risks-require-extraordinary)
[Let’s not skip the hard work of AI governance](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/do-ai-risks-require-extraordinary)
May 21 • [Sayash Kapoor](https://substack.com/@sayash) and [Arvind Narayanan](https://substack.com/@aisnakeoil)
85
9
19
![](../images/body-d27afc93fa2cece2abf8.png)
### April 2026
[Open-world evaluations for measuring frontier AI capabilities](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/open-world-evaluations-for-measuring)
[Introducing CRUX, a new project for evaluating AI on long, messy tasks](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/open-world-evaluations-for-measuring)
Apr 16 • [Sayash Kapoor](https://substack.com/@sayash) and [Arvind Narayanan](https://substack.com/@aisnakeoil)
99
7
14
![](../images/body-ab273e5917edef922b91.jpeg)
### February 2026
[New Paper: Towards a science of AI agent reliability](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/new-paper-towards-a-science-of-ai)
[Quantifying the capability-reliability gap](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/new-paper-towards-a-science-of-ai)
Feb 24 • [Sayash Kapoor](https://substack.com/@sayash) and [Arvind Narayanan](https://substack.com/@aisnakeoil)
328
36
71
![](../images/body-f1c48dacaae2beeacce5.jpeg)
[AI Won’t Automatically Make Legal Services Cheaper](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/ai-wont-automatically-make-legal)
[Applying the AI as Normal Technology framework to legal services](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/ai-wont-automatically-make-legal)
Feb 12 • [Justin Curl](https://substack.com/@justincurl), [Sayash Kapoor](https://substack.com/@sayash), and [Arvind Narayanan](https://substack.com/@aisnakeoil)
86
13
15
![](../images/body-9e068808a486ef1ed733.png)
### January 2026
[Fact checking Moravec's paradox](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/fact-checking-moravecs-paradox)
[The famous aphorism is neither true nor useful](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/fact-checking-moravecs-paradox)
Jan 29 • [Arvind Narayanan](https://substack.com/@aisnakeoil)
174
10
25
![](../images/body-af746494c7547caf396f.png)
### September 2025
[A guide to understanding AI as normal technology](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/a-guide-to-understanding-ai-as-normal)
[And a big change for this newsletter](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/a-guide-to-understanding-ai-as-normal)
Sep 9, 2025 • [Arvind Narayanan](https://substack.com/@aisnakeoil) and [Sayash Kapoor](https://substack.com/@sayash)
234
29
42
![](../images/body-abf6fbace29ee2728fae.png)
### July 2025
[Could AI slow science?](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/could-ai-slow-science)
[Confronting the production-progress paradox](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/could-ai-slow-science)
Jul 16, 2025 • [Sayash Kapoor](https://substack.com/@sayash) and [Arvind Narayanan](https://substack.com/@aisnakeoil)
325
37
70
![](../images/body-7259dbb9e459f3e9d2e0.jpeg)
### May 2025
[AGI is not a milestone](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/agi-is-not-a-milestone)
[There is no capability threshold that will lead to sudden impacts](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/agi-is-not-a-milestone)
May 1, 2025 • [Sayash Kapoor](https://substack.com/@sayash) and [Arvind Narayanan](https://substack.com/@aisnakeoil)
199
37
40
![](../images/body-1a43f643b5b6cd283a1b.png)
### April 2025
[AI as Normal Technology](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/ai-as-normal-technology)
[A new paper that we will expand into our next book](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/ai-as-normal-technology)
Apr 15, 2025 • [Arvind Narayanan](https://substack.com/@aisnakeoil) and [Sayash Kapoor](https://substack.com/@sayash)
636
40
132
![](../images/body-11e01a825e7509751d75.jpeg)
### December 2024
[Is AI progress slowing down?](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/is-ai-progress-slowing-down)
[Making sense of recent technology trends and claims](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/is-ai-progress-slowing-down)
Dec 18, 2024 • [Arvind Narayanan](https://substack.com/@aisnakeoil) and [Sayash Kapoor](https://substack.com/@sayash)
171
15
29
![](../images/body-40aefaeaf590a97d144b.png)
[We Looked at 78 Election Deepfakes. Political Misinformation is not an AI Problem.](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/we-looked-at-78-election-deepfakes)
[Technology Isn’t the Problem—or the Solution.](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/we-looked-at-78-election-deepfakes)
Dec 13, 2024 • [Sayash Kapoor](https://substack.com/@sayash) and [Arvind Narayanan](https://substack.com/@aisnakeoil)
119
6
23
![](../images/body-d8a9c7243857d00eeb5e.jpeg)
### November 2024
[Does the UK’s liver transplant matching algorithm systematically exclude younger patients?](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/does-the-uks-liver-transplant-matching)
[Seemingly minor technical decisions can have life-or-death effects](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/does-the-uks-liver-transplant-matching)
Nov 11, 2024 • [Arvind Narayanan](https://substack.com/@aisnakeoil) and [Sayash Kapoor](https://substack.com/@sayash)
103
11
7
![](../images/body-f707e0bfb4942e74aaa2.jpeg)
### October 2024
[FAQ about the book and our writing process](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/faq-about-the-book-and-our-writing)
[What's in the book and how we wrote it](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/faq-about-the-book-and-our-writing)
Oct 4, 2024 • [Arvind Narayanan](https://substack.com/@arvindnarayanan) and [Sayash Kapoor](https://substack.com/@sayash)
90
13
6
![](../images/body-329c87a3b11e16b5633e.png)
### September 2024
[Can AI automate computational reproducibility?](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/can-ai-automate-computational-reproducibility)
[A new benchmark to measure the impact of AI on improving science](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/can-ai-automate-computational-reproducibility)
Sep 18, 2024 • [Sayash Kapoor](https://substack.com/@sayash) and [Arvind Narayanan](https://substack.com/@arvindnarayanan)
48
2
2
![](../images/body-c79ff7a50bd6e4348dcf.png)
[Start reading the AI Snake Oil book online](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/starting-reading-the-ai-snake-oil)
[The book was published on September 24, 2024](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/starting-reading-the-ai-snake-oil)
Sep 10, 2024 • [Arvind Narayanan](https://substack.com/@arvindnarayanan) and [Sayash Kapoor](https://substack.com/@sayash)
199
8
10
![](../images/body-694a23a3a243cb15df90.png)
### August 2024
[AI companies are pivoting from creating gods to building products. Good.](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/ai-companies-are-pivoting-from-creating)
[Turning models into products runs into five challenges](https://www.normaltech.ai/p/ai-companies-are-pivoting-from-creating)
Aug 19, 2024 • [Arvind Narayanan](https://substack.com/@arvindnarayanan) and [Sayash Kapoor](https://substack.com/@sayash)
230
24
27
![](../images/body-01dfb81732989705530e.png)
© 2026 Sayash Kapoor and Arvind Narayanan · [Privacy](https://substack.com/privacy) ∙ [Terms](https://substack.com/tos) ∙ [Collection notice](https://substack.com/ccpa#personal-data-collected)
[ Start your Substack](https://substack.com/signup?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=web&utm_content=footer)[Get the app](https://substack.com/app/app-store-redirect?utm_campaign=app-marketing&utm_content=web-footer-button)
[Substack](https://substack.com) is the home for great culture